888-983-1617 [email protected]

Making High-Impact Decisions In Uncertain Times (Part 2 of 2)

NOTE: This blog was written in April 2020.

Many of us are grappling with high-impact decisions that need to be made right now. For the most immediate decisions, a checklist to help organize thinking can be a useful tool.

For issues that must be grappled with over time, good habits of scenario thinking can improve decision-making.

The four building blocks of scenario learning are:

  • Develop plausible alternatives that challenge conventional wisdom.
  • Create structured time for discussion and dialogue.
  • Quantify the potential impact; don’t just describe it in words.
  • Link lessons to their impact on specific decisions, whether by augmenting understanding, reframing existing decisions, identifying contingent decisions or adding new decisions to the agenda.

This is not as easy as it sounds, particularly the element of developing plausible alternative scenarios about the future. The goal is to challenge conventional wisdom, but also to relate the scenarios to underlying driving forces that can be monitored over time.

To be better at scenario thinking, we suggest developing habits of these 10 behaviors from Peter Schwartz’s Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence:

  1. Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence systems. Look around to observe and interpret the interaction of forces that might affect you.
  2. Cultivate a sense of timing. When you see an event approaching, make a point of asking: How rapidly is it approaching? When could it occur? How far in the future?
  3. Identify in advance early warning indicators that would signal that a change is rapidly upon you.
  4. Try to avoid denial. When a future scenario feels particularly wrong or discomfiting, and your first impulse is to say, “That would hurt us if it happened, but it won’t happen,” that’s a signal to pay closer attention to it.
  5. Be aware of the competence of your judgment, and the level of judgment that new situations require; and move deliberately and humbly into new situations that stretch your judgment.
  6. Place a very, very high premium on learning.
  7. Think like a commodity company, which is accustomed to product prices going up and down regularly. Understand the temptation to think that “this time is different” and that good (or bad) streaks will go on forever.
  8. Focus attention on the side effects of your actions by, for example, considering environmental and ecological sustainability.
  9. Place a very high premium on financial infrastructure and support, because risks are greater than we think and a financial cushion can make the difference in how we weather hard times.
  10. Cultivate connections by building relationships with people who think differently from you.

Please call if we can help you, or a business leader or investor you know, with scenario thinking in these uncertain times.

Help Me With Options For Obtaining Capital

Ask Us Anything Dear Oaklyn Consulting, I have a business that needs a cash inflow. However, my local bank is not willing to provide more credit. What other options do I have to obtain capital, and what are the pros and cons of each alternative?   From Oaklyn...

Oaklyn Consulting Congratulates Effie On Strategic Transaction with Ascential

Oaklyn Consulting congratulates Effie, a U.S. nonprofit whose annual Effie Awards honor global marketing effectiveness, on its transaction with Ascential.

5 Common Pitfalls When Selling Your Business Without a Broker

See how to sell your business without a broker, what are the advantages and disadvantages, and how to make better capital decisions in such cases.

How a Merger Can Strengthen Nonprofits for the Future

The same way merging for-profit businesses can increase reach and profitability, merging nonprofits can safeguard organizations from economic uncertainties.

Help Me With When to Make an Employee an Owner of my Company

Ask Us Anything Dear Oaklyn Consulting, I’ve been in business for 10 years and have an employee who is a valued member of the business and would be hard to replace. How can I incentivize him/her to stay and become part of the equity in the business, while best...

How Business Sellers Can Navigate the Due Diligence Process

Learn more on how to perform due diligence more efficiently and facilitate business mergers, acquisitions, and more for clients, partners or your own business.

How to Successfully Collaborate With a New Capital Partner

Gaining a new capital partner offers a business not just funds but also expertise and management support. Learn how to collaborate with business partners.

Selling and Retirement

Ask Us Anything Dear Oaklyn Consulting, I’m 61 years old and have been working in/running my business for 40 years. I want to retire and I don’t know if I can find a buyer that will pay enough to allow me to retire comfortably on the proceeds. What options should I...

How to Implement Scenario Planning in Your Business

Learn how to implement scenario planningin your business. Bring in multiple perspectives and quantify each to make your organization more robust and efficient.

How to Increase Business Value Before a Sale

Learn how to increas your business’ value to maximize sale profits and attract better buyers and/or partners.